{ "generatedAt": "2026-06-03", "count": 27, "observations": [ { "id": "2026-04-property-type-luxury-home-chubb", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "property-type naming", "title": "Property-type naming — luxury home", "evidence": "Chubb wins luxury-home queries on both LLMs at the maximum stability we measured. Cross-LLM agreement at 5/5 + 5/5; under the null this is ~1 in 39 billion.", "query": "What's the best housing insurance for a luxury home in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Chubb", "rationale": "high-net-worth specialist with saturated editorial coverage" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — best home insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/insurance/homeowners/best-home-insurance" }, { "label": "Bankrate — best homeowners insurance", "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/best-home-insurance-companies/" }, { "label": "Chubb — high-net-worth home", "url": "https://www.chubb.com/us-en/individuals-families/home-insurance.html" } ], "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h2-luxury" }, { "id": "2026-04-property-type-historic-home-chubb", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "property-type naming", "title": "Property-type naming — historic home", "evidence": "Chubb wins historic-home queries 4/5 on Perplexity (one State Farm slip) and 5/5 on Gemini. Cross-LLM agreement on the same carrier confirms the property-type ownership pattern extends beyond luxury.", "query": "What's the best housing insurance for a historic home in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Chubb", "rationale": "specialty home category with carrier-aligned editorial depth" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "State Farm", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — historic home insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/historic-home-insurance" }, { "label": "Chubb — masterpiece home", "url": "https://www.chubb.com/us-en/individuals-families/home-insurance.html" } ], "note": "Chubb's win across luxury + historic suggests it owns the broader 'premium / elevated-risk property' category, not one specific property type.", "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h2-historic" }, { "id": "2026-04-property-type-condo-home-nationwide", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "property-type naming", "title": "Property-type naming — condo", "evidence": "Nationwide wins condo-insurance queries cross-LLM. Perplexity returns Nationwide 3/5 (with two State Farm slips), Gemini returns Nationwide 5/5. Cross-LLM agreement at the modal carrier.", "query": "What's the best housing insurance for a condo in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Nationwide", "rationale": "originated in the Seattle ablation as the unanimous condo answer" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Nationwide", "Nationwide", "State Farm", "State Farm", "Nationwide" ], "modal": { "value": "Nationwide", "count": 3 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Nationwide", "Nationwide", "Nationwide", "Nationwide", "Nationwide" ], "modal": { "value": "Nationwide", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Nationwide" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — best condo insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/condo-insurance" }, { "label": "Bankrate — condo insurance", "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/best-condo-insurance/" } ], "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h2-condo" }, { "id": "2026-04-emerging-category-ev-auto-travelers", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "auto", "lever": "emerging-category presence", "title": "Emerging-category presence — EV insurance", "evidence": "Travelers wins electric-vehicle auto queries 4/5 on Perplexity and 5/5 on Gemini. Neither EV-native insurtechs (Root, Lemonade) nor Tesla Insurance ranks first. Travelers captured EV editorial coverage early.", "query": "What's the best car insurance for an electric vehicle in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "varies", "rationale": "open emerging category — could be insurtech, OEM, or generalist" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Travelers", "Travelers", "Auto-Owners", "Travelers", "Travelers" ], "modal": { "value": "Travelers", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Travelers", "Travelers", "Travelers", "Travelers", "Travelers" ], "modal": { "value": "Travelers", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Travelers" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — EV insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/electric-car-insurance" }, { "label": "Bankrate — electric car insurance", "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/electric-car-insurance/" } ], "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=v-ev" }, { "id": "2026-04-specialty-use-case-rideshare-auto-state-farm", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "auto", "lever": "category editorial depth on specialty use-case", "title": "Specialty use-case ownership — inverted (rideshare)", "evidence": "State Farm wins rideshare-driver queries 3/5 on Perplexity and 5/5 on Gemini. Progressive — the actual market specialist (TNC endorsement pioneer) — does not place first. Editorial depth, not market-specialty status, drives retrieval.", "query": "What's the best car insurance for rideshare drivers in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Progressive", "rationale": "rideshare-specialty pioneer in the actual market" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "Progressive", "Auto-Owners", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 3 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "State Farm" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — rideshare insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/rideshare-insurance" } ], "note": "Specialty carriers can recover their surface by closing the editorial-depth gap — brand-specialty alone is not enough.", "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=u-rideshare" }, { "id": "2026-04-specialty-use-case-sr22-auto-geico", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "auto", "lever": "category editorial depth on specialty use-case", "title": "Specialty use-case ownership — inverted (SR-22)", "evidence": "GEICO wins SR-22 queries 5/5 on Perplexity and 3/5 on Gemini. Dairyland — the largest US SR-22 monoline writer — does not place first. Same editorial-depth pattern as rideshare.", "query": "What's the best car insurance in Seattle for SR-22?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Dairyland", "rationale": "largest US SR-22 monoline writer" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "GEICO", "GEICO", "GEICO", "GEICO", "GEICO" ], "modal": { "value": "GEICO", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "GEICO", "GEICO", "GEICO" ], "modal": { "value": "GEICO", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "GEICO" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — SR-22 insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/sr-22-insurance" }, { "label": "The Zebra — SR-22", "url": "https://www.thezebra.com/auto-insurance/driver/sr-22/" } ], "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=u-sr22" }, { "id": "2026-04-regional-monopoly-nj-auto-njm", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "auto", "lever": "regional monopoly (line-specific)", "title": "Regional monopoly — NJM owns NJ auto", "evidence": "NJM wins Newark, NJ auto queries 4/5 on both LLMs (one Plymouth Rock per LLM). NJM writes ~1 in 4 NJ auto policies — the cleanest regional-champion case in the dataset.", "query": "What's the best car insurance in Newark, New Jersey?", "prediction": { "carrier": "NJM", "rationale": "overwhelming NJ auto market share" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "NJM", "NJM", "Plymouth Rock", "NJM", "NJM" ], "modal": { "value": "NJM", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "NJM", "NJM", "NJM", "NJM", "Plymouth Rock" ], "modal": { "value": "NJM", "count": 4 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "NJM" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NJM.com", "url": "https://www.njm.com/" }, { "label": "NerdWallet — best NJ auto insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/new-jersey-car-insurance" } ], "note": "Caveat: same carrier doesn't win across lines. MAPFRE owns Boston home (5/5 + 3/5) but does NOT own Boston auto (Plymouth Rock + State Farm split). Line-of-business dominance is required.", "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=r-nj" }, { "id": "2026-04-regional-monopoly-ma-home-mapfre", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "regional monopoly (line-specific)", "title": "Regional monopoly — MAPFRE owns MA home", "evidence": "MAPFRE wins Boston, MA home queries 5/5 on Perplexity and 3/5 on Gemini (with Amica slips). The HQ'd carrier (Liberty Mutual, Boston) does not place first — regional volume share matters, not HQ address.", "query": "What's the best value housing insurance in Boston, Massachusetts?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Liberty Mutual", "rationale": "Boston HQ — but actual answer follows regional share, not HQ" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "MAPFRE", "MAPFRE", "MAPFRE", "MAPFRE", "MAPFRE" ], "modal": { "value": "MAPFRE", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Amica", "MAPFRE", "MAPFRE", "MAPFRE", "Amica" ], "modal": { "value": "MAPFRE", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "MAPFRE" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "Bankrate — best Boston MA home insurance", "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/massachusetts/" } ], "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h1-boston" }, { "id": "2026-04-specialty-peril-jewelry-home-chubb", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "specialty-peril coverage (saturated category)", "title": "Specialty-peril coverage — high-value jewelry", "evidence": "Chubb wins jewelry-coverage queries 5/5 on both LLMs. Specialty-peril surfacing replicates cleanly when the category itself has saturated editorial coverage (high-net-worth = Chubb's editorial home turf).", "query": "What's the best insurance in Seattle for high-value jewelry coverage?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Chubb", "rationale": "high-net-worth editorial saturation" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "Chubb — high-value jewelry", "url": "https://www.chubb.com/us-en/individuals-families/products/valuable-articles.html" }, { "label": "NerdWallet — jewelry insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/jewelry-insurance" } ], "note": "Wildfire and flood specialty perils do NOT replicate at this level — generalists win those by default. Specialty wins are conditional on editorial saturation.", "impact": "small", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h3-jewelry" }, { "id": "2026-04-comparison-site-citations-meta", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "comparison-site dependence", "title": "Comparison sites are the dominant Perplexity citation surface", "evidence": "Across 8 US cities × Perplexity in the multi-city probe, ~58% of unique citation hosts are consumer-comparison sites: NerdWallet, The Zebra, Bankrate, Policygenius, Insurify. Every winning carrier in the observations above is named on at least one of these sites in the matching category.", "runs": [], "carriersObserved": [], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/insurance" }, { "label": "The Zebra", "url": "https://www.thezebra.com/" }, { "label": "Bankrate — insurance", "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/" }, { "label": "Policygenius", "url": "https://www.policygenius.com/" }, { "label": "Insurify", "url": "https://insurify.com/" } ], "impact": "clear", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-multi-city-2026-04-24.json#provider=perplexity" }, { "id": "2026-04-hq-city-effect-myth", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "home", "lever": "HQ-city presence", "title": "Being HQ'd in the query city", "evidence": "Tested across 5 HQ cities. Only 1 of 10 observations matched the predicted HQ-city carrier. Bloomington IL → State Farm only on Gemini (Perplexity returned Allstate). Columbus OH (Nationwide HQ) → Cincinnati and Erie. Boston MA (Liberty Mutual HQ) → MAPFRE on both LLMs. HQ address has no observed lift.", "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "State Farm", "Allstate", "USAA", "USAA", "Allstate" ], "modal": { "value": "Allstate", "count": 2 } } ], "carriersObserved": [], "referencePages": [], "impact": "none", "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h1-bloomington" }, { "id": "2026-04-market-specialist-without-editorial-depth", "capturedAt": "2026-04-24", "intent": "auto", "lever": "being the market specialist alone", "title": "Being the actual market specialist — without matching editorial depth", "evidence": "Hagerty (largest US classic-car insurer) does not win the LLM classic-car query. Dairyland (largest SR-22 monoline writer) does not win SR-22. Progressive (rideshare-insurance category pioneer) does not win rideshare. Tesla Insurance does not win the Tesla query on Perplexity. Specialist brand alone does not surface; editorial depth wins.", "runs": [], "carriersObserved": [], "referencePages": [], "note": "Inverse of the editorial-depth observations above. Specialists can recover their surface by closing the editorial-coverage gap, not by leaning on category-specialty positioning.", "impact": "none" }, { "id": "2026-04-auto-price-quality-anchor-wording-best-value-seattle", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "auto", "lever": "price/quality anchor wording", "title": "Price anchor — 'best value' (control)", "evidence": "perplexity returns USAA 4/5; gemini returns State Farm 4/5. Verdict: prediction held: USAA placed first.", "query": "What's the best value car insurance in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "USAA", "rationale": "control — already observed in prior ablation" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "State Farm", "USAA", "USAA", "USAA", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "USAA", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "USAA", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 4 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "USAA", "State Farm" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — best Washington car insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/washington-car-insurance" } ], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "allstate.com", "autoinsurance.com", "caranddriver.com", "geico.com", "nerdwallet.com", "policygenius.com", "thezebra.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-auto-price-quality-anchor-wording-cheapest-seattle", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "auto", "lever": "price/quality anchor wording", "title": "Price anchor — 'cheapest'", "evidence": "perplexity returns State Farm 5/5; gemini returns State Farm 5/5. Verdict: predicted GEICO, but State Farm actually placed first.", "query": "What's the cheapest car insurance in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "GEICO", "rationale": "cheapest-listicle saturation typically favors GEICO/Progressive" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "State Farm" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — cheapest car insurance", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/cheapest-car-insurance" } ], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "allstate.com", "autoinsurance.com", "geico.com", "lemonade.com", "libertymutual.com", "nerdwallet.com", "policygenius.com", "thezebra.com", "valuepenguin.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-auto-price-quality-anchor-wording-premium-seattle", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "auto", "lever": "price/quality anchor wording", "title": "Price anchor — 'premium'", "evidence": "perplexity returns USAA 4/5; gemini returns Chubb 4/5. Verdict: prediction held: Chubb placed first.", "query": "What's the premium car insurance in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Chubb", "rationale": "premium framing should surface high-net-worth specialist" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "USAA", "MetLife", "USAA", "USAA", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "USAA", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "USAA", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 4 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "USAA", "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "autoinsurance.com", "bankrate.com", "caranddriver.com", "geico.com", "insurance.com", "insure.com", "lemonade.com", "nerdwallet.com", "secordagency.com", "thezebra.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-auto-price-quality-anchor-wording-top-rated-seattle", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "auto", "lever": "price/quality anchor wording", "title": "Price anchor — 'top-rated'", "evidence": "perplexity returns USAA 4/5; gemini returns USAA 3/5. Verdict: prediction held: USAA placed first.", "query": "What's the top-rated car insurance in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "USAA", "rationale": "rating-anchored queries usually surface USAA on JD Power" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "USAA", "USAA", "State Farm", "USAA", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "USAA", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "USAA", "State Farm", "USAA", "State Farm", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "USAA", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "USAA" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "Bankrate — best car insurance companies", "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/best-car-insurance-companies/" } ], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "autoinsurance.com", "bankrate.com", "caranddriver.com", "geico.com", "nerdwallet.com", "policygenius.com", "thezebra.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-auto-price-quality-anchor-wording-most-reliable-seattle", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "auto", "lever": "price/quality anchor wording", "title": "Price anchor — 'most reliable'", "evidence": "perplexity returns USAA 5/5; gemini returns USAA 4/5. Verdict: predicted State Farm, but USAA actually placed first.", "query": "What's the most reliable car insurance in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "State Farm", "rationale": "reliability framing should surface incumbent generalists" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "USAA", "USAA", "USAA", "USAA", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "USAA", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "USAA", "State Farm", "USAA", "USAA", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "USAA", "count": 4 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "USAA" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "autoinsurance.com", "bankrate.com", "caranddriver.com", "geico.com", "google.com", "moneygeek.com", "nationwide.com", "nerdwallet.com", "policygenius.com", "thezebra.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-home-bundled-policy-prompt-bundle-seattle", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "home", "lever": "bundled-policy prompt", "title": "Bundle prompt — Seattle (control)", "evidence": "perplexity returns State Farm 5/5; gemini returns PEMCO 3/5. Verdict: prediction held: State Farm placed first.", "query": "What's the best home and auto insurance bundle in Seattle?", "prediction": { "carrier": "State Farm", "rationale": "national bundler with deep editorial coverage" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "State Farm", "PEMCO", "PEMCO", "PEMCO", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "PEMCO", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "State Farm", "PEMCO" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "NerdWallet — best home and auto bundle", "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/home-auto-bundle" } ], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "allstate.com", "insure.com", "libertymutual.com", "moneygeek.com", "nerdwallet.com", "progressive.com", "selectquote.com", "statefarm.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-home-bundled-policy-prompt-bundle-newark-nj", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "home", "lever": "bundled-policy prompt", "title": "Bundle prompt — Newark, NJ (NJM territory)", "evidence": "perplexity returns Farmers 2/5; gemini returns NJM 3/5. Verdict: prediction held: NJM placed first.", "query": "What's the best home and auto insurance bundle in Newark, New Jersey?", "prediction": { "carrier": "NJM", "rationale": "tests whether NJM's NJ auto monopoly extends to bundle" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Farmers", "State Farm", "Farmers", "Amica", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "Farmers", "count": 2 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "NJM", "NJM", "Farmers", "NJM", "Farmers" ], "modal": { "value": "NJM", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "NJM" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "allstate.com", "geico.com", "libertymutual.com", "mercuryinsurance.com", "moneygeek.com", "nerdwallet.com", "selectquote.com", "statefarm.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-home-bundled-policy-prompt-bundle-boston", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "home", "lever": "bundled-policy prompt", "title": "Bundle prompt — Boston, MA (MAPFRE territory)", "evidence": "perplexity returns Farmers 5/5; gemini returns Farmers 5/5. Verdict: predicted MAPFRE, but Farmers actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best home and auto insurance bundle in Boston, Massachusetts?", "prediction": { "carrier": "MAPFRE", "rationale": "tests whether MAPFRE's MA home win extends to bundle" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Farmers", "Farmers", "Farmers", "Farmers", "Farmers" ], "modal": { "value": "Farmers", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Farmers", "Farmers", "Farmers", "Farmers", "Farmers" ], "modal": { "value": "Farmers", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Farmers" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "allstate.com", "autoinsurance.com", "crossagency.com", "insurance.com", "insuranceopedia.com", "libertymutual.com", "massinsuranceagency.com", "moneygeek.com", "nerdwallet.com", "nobileinsurance.com", "pearsonwallace.com", "selectquote.com", "usaa.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-home-bundled-policy-prompt-bundle-atlanta", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "home", "lever": "bundled-policy prompt", "title": "Bundle prompt — Atlanta, GA", "evidence": "perplexity returns Progressive 4/5; gemini returns State Farm 2/5. Verdict: predicted Auto-Owners, but Progressive actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best home and auto insurance bundle in Atlanta, Georgia?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Auto-Owners", "rationale": "Auto-Owners surfaced in prior Atlanta single-line probes" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Progressive", "Progressive", "Progressive", "Progressive", "USAA" ], "modal": { "value": "Progressive", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "State Farm", "State Farm", "Progressive", "Auto-Owners", "Auto-Owners" ], "modal": { "value": "State Farm", "count": 2 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Progressive" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "allstate.com", "google.com", "insurance.com", "insuranceopedia.com", "insure.com", "libertymutual.com", "mercuryinsurance.com", "moneygeek.com", "nerdwallet.com", "selectquote.com", "siegelinsurance.com", "southernharvestinsurance.com", "statefarm.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-home-bundled-policy-prompt-bundle-la", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "home", "lever": "bundled-policy prompt", "title": "Bundle prompt — Los Angeles, CA", "evidence": "perplexity returns AAA 5/5; gemini returns AAA 4/5. Verdict: predicted Mercury, but AAA actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best home and auto insurance bundle in Los Angeles, California?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Mercury", "rationale": "Mercury is CA market leader; tests whether bundle alters that" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "AAA", "AAA", "AAA", "AAA", "AAA" ], "modal": { "value": "AAA", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "AAA", "AAA", "AAA", "AAA", "State Farm" ], "modal": { "value": "AAA", "count": 4 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "AAA" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "autoinsurance.com", "farmers.com", "insure.com", "insurify.com", "libertymutual.com", "moneygeek.com", "nerdwallet.com", "progressive.com", "statefarm.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-commercial-commercial-cyber-by-vertical-saas-50", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "commercial", "lever": "commercial cyber by vertical", "title": "Commercial cyber — SaaS startup (50 employees)", "evidence": "perplexity returns Chubb 5/5; gemini returns Hiscox 2/5. Verdict: predicted Coalition, but Chubb actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best cyber insurance for a 50-person SaaS startup?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Coalition", "rationale": "cyber-native insurtech targeting tech SMB" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Hiscox", "Hiscox", "Coalition", "Chubb", "Coalition" ], "modal": { "value": "Hiscox", "count": 2 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "Coalition", "url": "https://www.coalitioninc.com/" } ], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "corgi.insure", "foundershield.com", "hirechore.com", "hiscox.com", "insureon.com", "rupammaity.com", "security.org", "thehartford.com", "unbridledinsurance.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-commercial-commercial-cyber-by-vertical-law-firm-mid", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "commercial", "lever": "commercial cyber by vertical", "title": "Commercial cyber — mid-market law firm", "evidence": "perplexity returns Chubb 5/5; gemini returns Chubb 5/5. Verdict: predicted Beazley, but Chubb actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best cyber insurance for a mid-market law firm?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Beazley", "rationale": "professional-services cyber specialist" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "alpsinsurance.com", "coalitioninc.com", "cybermagazine.com", "google.com", "insura.ai", "insurancebusinessmag.com", "legal500.com", "oblic.com", "pillsburycoleman.com", "pillsburylaw.com", "robinskaplan.com", "saul.com", "skarzynski.com", "vault.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com", "wiley.law", "wilmic.com", "wilsonelser.com", "wshblaw.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-commercial-commercial-cyber-by-vertical-healthcare-smb", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "commercial", "lever": "commercial cyber by vertical", "title": "Commercial cyber — healthcare SMB", "evidence": "perplexity returns Chubb 5/5; gemini returns Chubb 3/5. Verdict: prediction held: Chubb placed first.", "query": "What's the best cyber insurance for a healthcare SMB?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Chubb", "rationale": "healthcare cyber is high-regulation, generalist with depth wins" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Coalition", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Coalition" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "axcient.com", "boostinsurance.com", "chubb.com", "coalitioninc.com", "cybermagazine.com", "cyberpolicy.com", "eset.com", "google.com", "hiscox.com", "insurancebusinessmag.com", "insureon.com", "nerdwallet.com", "security.org", "sentinelone.com", "thehartford.com", "uschamber.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-commercial-commercial-cyber-by-vertical-fintech-startup", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "commercial", "lever": "commercial cyber by vertical", "title": "Commercial cyber — fintech startup", "evidence": "perplexity returns Chubb 4/5; gemini returns Coalition 3/5. Verdict: predicted At-Bay, but Chubb / Coalition actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best cyber insurance for a fintech startup?", "prediction": { "carrier": "At-Bay", "rationale": "fintech cyber specialist insurtech" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Coalition", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 4 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Chubb", "Coalition", "Coalition", "Coalition", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Coalition", "count": 3 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb", "Coalition" ], "referencePages": [ { "label": "At-Bay", "url": "https://www.at-bay.com/" } ], "impact": "small", "citationHosts": [ "canopius.com", "cfc.com", "corgi.insure", "hirechore.com", "insureon.com", "insurtechdigital.com", "insurtechinsights.com", "seedpodcyber.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] }, { "id": "2026-04-commercial-commercial-cyber-by-vertical-manufacturer-200", "capturedAt": "2026-04-26", "intent": "commercial", "lever": "commercial cyber by vertical", "title": "Commercial cyber — manufacturer (200 employees)", "evidence": "perplexity returns Chubb 5/5; gemini returns Chubb 4/5. Verdict: predicted Travelers, but Chubb actually placed first.", "query": "What's the best cyber insurance for a manufacturer with 200 employees?", "prediction": { "carrier": "Travelers", "rationale": "mid-market manufacturing cyber typically traditional" }, "runs": [ { "llm": "perplexity", "results": [ "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 5 } }, { "llm": "gemini", "results": [ "Travelers", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb", "Chubb" ], "modal": { "value": "Chubb", "count": 4 } } ], "carriersObserved": [ "Chubb" ], "referencePages": [], "impact": "clear", "citationHosts": [ "biberk.com", "cfc.com", "chubb.com", "cinfin.com", "coalitioninc.com", "commercial.allianz.com", "corvusinsurance.com", "cybermagazine.com", "cyberpolicy.com", "greatamericaninsurancegroup.com", "hiscox.com", "insurancebusinessmag.com", "insureon.com", "moneygeek.com", "munichre.com", "nextinsurance.com", "security.org", "smartestdollar.com", "thehartford.com", "thehortongroup.com", "vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com" ] } ] }